Survival Analysis in Patients with Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) using Weibull Parametric Model in Indonesia: Case Study at the Regional General Hospital (RSUD) Makassar

Abstract

Purpose: This research is to know the general description of the characteristics of DHF patients and to find out the factors that most influence the cure rate and the length of time for DHF patients who are hospitalized until they are declared cured.

Methodology: The data used in this study were secondary data regarding the criteria for DHF patients obtained from the medical records of the Regional General Hospital (RSUD) Makassar in 2015. This case study of DHF patients is based on 7 characteristics, starting from age, gender, hemoglobin, leucocyte, hematocrit, platelet, and body temperature.

Results: The characteristic DHF patients starting from the length of time DHF patients were hospitalized for ≤ 5 days (71.43%) and > 5 days (28.57%), the age of the patients ≤ 16 years (53.33%) and > 16 years (46.67%), the sex of the patients were male (52%) and female (48%), the hemoglobin of the patients ≤ 15 g/dl (69.52%) and > 15 g/ dl (30.48%), the leukocytes of the patients ≤ 4/μl (42.86%) and > 4/μl (57.14%), the hematocrit of the patients of ≤ 42% (68.57%) and > 42% (31.43%), the platelet of the patients < normal (89.52%) and normal (10.48%), and the body temperature of the patients ≤ 380C (48.57%) and > 380C (51.43%). This research uses Weibull parametric model to calculate survival analysis. The calculation shows that the best significant model only involves platelets and body temperature where the result of the AFT model, DHF patients with normal platelets will speed up the recovery rate after treatment and give a survival time of 1.4134 times longer than DHF patients with < normal platelets and DHF patient with body temperature > 380C will accelerate the recovery rate after treatment and provide a survival time of 1.1266 times longer than DHF patients with body temperature ≤ 380C. The result of the PH model, DHF patients with normal platelets, the risk of recovery after treatment of 0.8988 times than to DHF patients with < normal platelets and DHF patients with body temperature > 380C will get the risk of recovery after treatment of 0.9642 times than of DHF patients with body temperature ≤ 380C.

Applications/Originality/Value: Data from the medical records of the Regional General Hospital (RSUD) Makassar is useful for this study because this data can provide information to the public about how the characteristics and factors that can affect the cure rate of DHF patients. In this study, a comprehensive discussion of dengue cases has been discussed.